The 2024 Sydney grass pollen season is looking like a potentially earlier and more intense grass pollen season compared to those of previous years, largely due to robust early-season vegetation growth and higher soil moisture levels compared.

But there’s a catch – this prediction depends on whether we get the predicted spring rainfall. If that happens, we’ll likely see a burst of grass growth toward the end of the season, which could make things rough for those with allergies.

Let’s break down the current conditions. Sydney has experienced a milder winter than usual, accompanied by average to above-average rainfall.

These wet and mild conditions have led to average soil moisture levels across much of New South Wales, a noticeable improvement compared to the same period last year. Higher soil moisture levels can promote vigorous grass growth, leading to increased pollen production.

Satellite images showing vegetation greenness in NSW for September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right). Image adpted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

How have these conditions affected surrounding grasslands, which are the source of much of Sydneys grass pollen? The second figure compares satellite images of vegetation greenness in in September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right). Sattelite data suggests that grasslands around Sydney are greener compared to the same period last year. This suggests that grass growth has been more robust this year, potentially due to improved soil moisture levels over last year's lows.

Satellite images showing vegetation greenness around Sydney for September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right).

Turning to the rainfall forecast, the final image shows that there's a 60-65% chance of above-media rainfall across much of New South Wales through the end of the year.

Map showing the chance of above average rainfall across Australia between October and December this year. Image adapted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

So, what does all this mean? Given the current conditions and forecasts, the grass pollen season in Sydney may start slightly earlier than usual and could be more intense than seen in recent years. Favorable weather, especially in October, could drive additional grass growth and lead to a heavier season in November and December. If you have allergies, it’s smart to stay alert and take steps to protect your health as the season progresses.

How to Prepare

For those affected by hay fever or asthma, preparation is crucial. Stay informed by tracking daily pollen counts via the Sydney Pollen App and adjust your plans on high pollen days. Make sure to consult with healthcare providers to have an action plan in place, especially if you suffer from asthma or allergies.

Where to Get Pollen Information

The Sydney Pollen App is available on both the Apple and Google Play Store , offering real-time notifications about pollen levels. You can also follow the Sydney Pollen team on X (formally twitter) and Facebook for updates.